Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
